Dayton Real Estate Market 2026:
First-Half Report, Prices & Forecast
Written by Chris Jurgens — licensed Ohio Realtor, Iraq Army veteran, and Dayton local specializing in military PCS moves and the Miami Valley housing market.
Bottom line up front
Through the first four reported months of 2026, the Greater Dayton (Miami Valley) housing market kept doing what it's done for a while now — prices up, inventory tight, homes selling at or near asking. Sales volume climbed even as the number of homes sold barely moved, which tells you appreciation is doing the heavy lifting.
First, clear up "Dayton" — city vs. region
This trips up almost everyone relocating here, so let's clear it up early.
- •The City of Dayton (proper) is an affordable, lower-priced submarket. Per Dayton REALTORS® community data, the city posted a 2025 median sale price of $135,000 across 1,498 sales.
- •The Miami Valley region— what most people actually mean by "Dayton," and what the Dayton REALTORS® MLS reports each month — covers Montgomery, Greene, Warren, Miami, Darke, Preble and surrounding communities. Its year-to-date median through April 2026 was $257,500.
Almost everyone moving here for Wright-Patterson AFB, a hospital system, or a corporate transfer lands in the suburbs — Beavercreek, Centerville, Kettering, Springboro, Huber Heights, Fairborn. So the regional number, and the suburb-level numbers further down, are the ones that matter for most relocating buyers. When you see a "$135K Dayton" headline somewhere, that's the city core — not what you'll pay in most of the relo-friendly suburbs.
Greater Dayton (Miami Valley) market data: month by month
All figures below are from the Dayton REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service monthly home-sales reports (single-family homes and condos).
| Month | Homes Sold | Median Price | Avg. Price | New Listings | Sale/List | Mo. Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 799 (+2.2%) | $237,500 | $276,169 | 1,163 | 98.3% | 2.6 |
| February | 906 (−2.3%) | $252,750 | $286,835 | 1,076 | 98.5% | 2.0 |
| March | 1,163 (+8.0%) | $260,000 | $292,813 | 1,614 | 99.4% | — |
| April | 1,223 (−3.2%) | $268,000 | $304,565 | 1,843 | 100% | 1.6 |
| YTD Jan–Apr | 4,137 (+2.2%) | $257,500 (+8.2%) | $291,370 (+5.3%) | 5,699 (+6.7%) | 99.1% | — |
Prices climbed every single month. The reported monthly median went $237,500 → $252,750 → $260,000 → $268,000, January to April. Year-to-date, the regional median is up about 8% over the same stretch of 2025 ($257,500 vs. $238,000), per Dayton REALTORS®.
Volume up, transaction count roughly flat. Year-to-date sales rose about 2% (4,137 vs. 4,050), but total dollar volume jumped over 7% to roughly $1.2 billion. Dollar volume growing faster than unit sales is the signature of an appreciating market, not just a busier one.
Inventory stayed tight. Supply ran from 2.6 months in January down to 1.6 months in April.The industry generally treats anything under four to six months as a seller's market, so Dayton has been firmly in seller's territory all year.
Sellers got nearly full price. The sale-to-list ratio sat between 98.3% and 100% every month, meaning the typical seller gave up little to nothing off asking.
Miami Valley suburb-by-suburb prices vary widely — the data below shows where your budget goes
Where the suburbs actually price out (2025 by community)
For relocating families, the regional median hides huge variation. Here's the full-year 2025 breakdown by community from Dayton REALTORS® — the most useful map of what your budget actually buys and where. (These are full-year 2025 figures; 2026 community-level totals won't be final until year-end.)
| Community | Units Sold (2025) | Median Sale Price |
|---|---|---|
| Springboro / Clearcreek Twp. | 572 | $475,000 |
| Waynesville | 104 | $465,000 |
| Yellow Springs | 77 | $405,000 |
| Oakwood | 150 | $382,500 |
| Bellbrook / Sugarcreek | 224 | $382,301 |
| Beavercreek | 806 | $345,000 |
| Centerville / Washington Twp. | 954 | $337,950 |
| Brookville | 107 | $299,990 |
| Miamisburg / Miami Twp. | 491 | $280,000 |
| Jamestown / Cedarville | 110 | $275,000 |
| Franklin / Carlisle | 358 | $272,631 |
| Vandalia | 311 | $270,000 |
| Kettering | 796 | $245,000 |
| Fairborn / Bath Twp. | 493 | $237,000 |
| Xenia | 469 | $235,000 |
| Huber Heights | 585 | $222,500 |
| Eaton | 174 | $216,500 |
| West Carrollton | 365 | $202,500 |
| New Lebanon | 74 | $197,500 |
| Greenville | 266 | $189,950 |
| Trotwood | 170 | $175,000 |
| Dayton (city proper) | 1,498 | $135,000 |
If you're PCS-ing to Wright-Patt
Fairborn, Beavercreek and Huber Heightsare the usual short-commute picks and they span a wide price range ($222K–$345K median). If you're optimizing for schools or resale, Centerville, Springboro and Oakwood sit at the top. If you're an investor or first-time buyer chasing the lowest entry point, the city core and the western communities (Trotwood, New Lebanon) are where the cheap basis is.
Why Dayton holds up: the economic anchor
The reason Dayton's market doesn't whip around like coastal metros comes down to who signs the paychecks here.
- •Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is the largest single-site employer in Ohio. Local officials and the Dayton Development Coalition reported the base crossed 38,000 personnel (military, civilian and contractor) in 2024 — roughly double its 2002 headcount.
- •Counting Wright-Patt alongside the region's other federal installations, the Dayton Development Coalition has put regional federal employment at 103,000+ jobs and $19 billion in annual economic activity.
- •Add Premier Health, Kettering Health, and the University of Dayton,and you have a base of recession-resistant employers — defense, healthcare, education — that don't evaporate when the economy softens.
That employment base is the real story behind the affordability and stability combo investors keep coming to Dayton for.
The national picture — context for the ~$160K gap
Dayton doesn't move in a vacuum. National figures below are from the National Association of REALTORS® April 2026 Existing-Home Sales report and Freddie Mac.
The single most important contrast for a Dayton buyer: the typical Dayton-region home (~$257K) costs well under the national median (~$418K). That affordability gap is exactly why relocation and investor demand here has stayed sticky.
What experts say about the next six months
Mortgage rates: flat-ish, higher for longer
- •Fannie Mae (May 2026) expects the 30-year fixed to hold near 6.3% through much of 2026 — a notable walk-back from early-2026 forecasts that had floated sub-6% rates. [Projection — verify before acting.]
- •Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) similarly projects 30-year rates in the 6.1%–6.3% band for 2026. [Projection.]
Net read
Don't model your purchase around a big rate drop this year. If you find the right home in Dayton at today's prices, the math still works — especially if you're using a VA loan, which typically runs below conventional rates.
Home prices: modest gains, no crash in the consensus
| Source | 2026 Price Forecast |
|---|---|
| NAR | +4.0% |
| Fannie Mae | +3.2% |
| Realtor.com | +2.2% |
| Zillow | +1.2% |
| MBA | +0.6% |
That's a spread from roughly +0.6% to +4% nationally — the experts agree on direction (up, slowly) but not magnitude. Nobody in this mainstream group is forecasting a national price decline for 2026 as their base case. [Projections — verify before acting.]
My read on Dayton specifically
Local-level forecasts are thinner and lower-confidence than national ones, so take this as directional only. With regional inventory near 1.6 months and prices up ~8% YTD, the path of least resistance for the rest of 2026 is continued tight supply and steady price firmness — unless rates spike hard enough to knock demand back. That's a view, not a guarantee, and it hinges on rates. [Opinion — informed by the data above.]
What this means for you
If you're buying (especially relocating)
Inventory is tight and you'll likely pay at or near asking, so get fully pre-approved before you tour and be ready to move on the right house. The upside: Dayton's price point gives you far more home per dollar than most metros, and rates today (~6.3%) are below where they were a year ago.
If you're selling
Conditions have favored you all year — near-full sale-to-list and low supply. Pricing still matters; the market being tight is not a license to overprice, because buyers are rate-sensitive and watching their monthly payment closely.
If you're investing
The affordability and stable-employment combo is the whole thesis here. Run real numbers on a specific property and submarket — the regional median tells you nothing about a given deal.
If you're PCS-ing to Wright-Patt
Focus your search on commute-to-base suburbs (Fairborn, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, plus Centerville/Kettering if you can trade a few minutes for schools and amenities). Build your timeline around tight inventory — good listings don't sit.
FAQ
Is the Dayton housing market a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?
Through April 2026, the Miami Valley region ran roughly 1.6–2.6 months of supply with sale-to-list ratios of 98–100% (Dayton REALTORS®). That's a seller's market by the usual industry yardstick, though it's less extreme than the frenzy of a few years back.
What's the median home price in Dayton right now?
Year-to-date through April 2026, the Miami Valley regional median was $257,500 (Dayton REALTORS®). The City of Dayton proper ran a $135,000 median in 2025. Suburb medians range from roughly $175K (Trotwood) to $475K (Springboro).
Are home prices in Dayton going up or down?
Up, so far. The reported regional median rose every month January through April 2026 and was about 8% higher year-over-year YTD (Dayton REALTORS®). National forecasters project continued — but slower — price growth for 2026.
Where are mortgage rates headed?
Fannie Mae and the MBA both project the 30-year fixed staying in roughly the 6.1%–6.3% range through 2026 (projection — not a guarantee). The April 2026 average was 6.33% (Freddie Mac).
Why is Dayton more affordable than the national average?
The regional median (~$257K) sits well below the national median (~$418K). A stable, defense-and-healthcare-anchored job base led by Wright-Patterson AFB supports steady demand without coastal-level pricing.
Sources
- Dayton REALTORS® — Miami Valley Housing Data & monthly home-sales releases (Jan–Apr 2026), daytonrealtors.org/housing-data
- National Association of REALTORS® — Existing-Home Sales, April 2026 (released May 11, 2026), nar.realtor
- Freddie Mac — 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average (via NAR April 2026 report)
- Fannie Mae — May 2026 Economic & Housing Outlook (via TheStreet, Florida Realtors)
- Realtor.com, Zillow, Mortgage Bankers Association — 2026 price/rate forecasts (compiled via U.S. News)
- Houzeo, RealWealth — Dayton-market forecasts and investor analysis
- Dayton Development Coalition / local reporting (WDTN, WOSU) — Wright-Patterson AFB employment and economic impact (2024)
Disclaimer: This report is for general information only and is not financial, investment, or legal advice. Market figures are point-in-time and subject to revision; forecasts are projections from third parties and may be wrong. Verify current data and consult a licensed professional before making any real estate decision. Chris Jurgens is a licensed real estate agent with eXp Realty serving the Greater Dayton / Miami Valley area.
Written by
Chris Jurgens
Licensed Ohio Realtor · U.S. Army Iraq War Veteran · Dayton Local · Team Flory · eXp Realty
Chris has 15 years of real estate experience in the Dayton area and specializes in military PCS moves and VA loan transactions. He served 9 years in the U.S. Army, including a deployment to Iraq, and brings firsthand understanding of the military relocation process to every client.
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